QUANTUM COMPUTING : How close are we?

Since the invention of the transistor, computing has evolved at an unprecedented pace. Classical computing, built on binary bits, has powered the digital revolution, allowing us to process data, run complex simulations, and explore the farthest reaches of artificial intelligence. But despite the advances, we are now approaching the limits of what classical computers can do.

Enter quantum computing, a radical new approach that promises to unlock possibilities beyond our imagination.

FROM CLASSICAL TO QUANTUM COMPUTING : A NEW PARADIGM

Classical computers, which process information as binary bits (0s and 1s), operate in a linear, step-by-step manner. For decades, Moore’s Law—predicting the doubling of transistors on chips every two years—has driven remarkable increases in computing power. But this exponential growth is slowing as we hit physical and practical limits.

Quantum computing offers a paradigm that introduces exponential growth in computing power as compared to classical compute.

Superposition

Quantum computing harnesses the bizarre properties of quantum mechanics to perform computations. Unlike classical computers that use bits (0s and 1s), quantum computers use quantum bits, or qubits. These qubits can exist in multiple states simultaneously, a phenomenon known as superposition.

Imagine a coin spinning on its edge. While it's spinning, it's neither heads nor tails - it's both at once. This is analogous to a qubit in superposition. When we measure it, it collapses into a definite state, just as the coin falls to heads or tails when it stops spinning.

Entanglement

Another key principle is entanglement, where qubits become interconnected in such a way that the state of one qubit can depend on the state of another, no matter the distance between them. Einstein famously called this "spooky action at a distance."

These properties allow quantum computers to perform certain calculations exponentially faster than classical computers.

To grasp the potential of quantum computing, consider this:

• A 300-qubit quantum computer could perform more calculations simultaneously than there are atoms in the observable universe.
• To match a 50-qubit quantum computer's capability, a classical computer would need to be the size of a planet.
• For certain problems, quantum computers could offer a million-fold speedup over classical computers.

QUBIT COMPUTING : EXPONENTIAL GAINS IN POWER

The fastest classical supercomputers, like the Frontier in the U.S. and Fugaku in Japan, are capable of performing quadrillions of operations per second—measured in petaflops (floating point operations per second). These machines excel at tasks that can be broken down into parallel computations, like simulating weather patterns, modeling protein folding, or analyzing large datasets.

However, classical computers are fundamentally limited by their binary nature, meaning they process data in bits (0s and 1s) sequentially, even in highly parallelized environments. As powerful as these machines are, they struggle with certain types of complex problems—such as simulating quantum systems, solving optimization challenges, or factoring large numbers

IBM’s 433-qubit "Osprey" processor represents a huge leap forward in quantum computing, though it’s important to recognize that qubit count alone doesn’t fully convey a machine’s capability—error rates and coherence time (the period during which qubits can maintain their quantum state) also play critical roles.

To put it in context, Osprey can process information in 2^433 possible states simultaneously. This is an astronomically large number—more possibilities than there are atoms in the observable universe. In theory, this allows quantum computers to perform calculations on an incomprehensible scale compared to even the fastest classical supercomputers.

However, practical use is still limited by noise, errors, and short coherence times.

HOW FAR ARE WE FROM QUANTUM'S PRACTICAL USE?

Although the promise is great, the journey to practical quantum computing is still in its early stages, and there are substantial hurdles:

1. Error Rates and Stability: Quantum computers are extremely sensitive to their environment. Even minor disturbances, like heat or electromagnetic interference, can cause qubits to lose their state (a process called decoherence). While researchers are making progress in error correction, building fault-tolerant systems is a critical challenge.
2. Scaling Qubits: Today’s quantum systems, such as IBM’s 433-qubit "Osprey," still fall short of the millions of qubits needed for large-scale, error-corrected quantum computing. Scaling qubits while maintaining stability is an engineering challenge that may take years to overcome.
3. Quantum Algorithms: Although algorithms like Shor’s for breaking encryption and Grover’s for searching databases are exciting, many practical quantum algorithms are still theoretical. Developing new algorithms that outperform classical methods is crucial for quantum’s broader application.

In the next 5 to 10 years, we will likely see quantum computing’s first impactful applications in specialized fields like quantum chemistry and logistics optimization. The broader, transformative potential of quantum—cracking encryption, revolutionizing drug discovery, or supercharging artificial intelligence—may take longer but is inevitable.

While IBM, Microsoft and Google are well-known players in the quantum computing space, PSIQuantum and IonQ are pioneering novel approaches and are equally important in pushing the boundaries of quantum technology.

APPLICATIONS : TODAYS SMALL WINS AND FUTURE POTENTIAL

Despite being in its early stages, several companies are exploring quantum to solve problems that exist today and will pave the way for bigger wins in the future.

• Chemistry and Material science: Players like IBM and PSIQuantum are collaborating with chemical companies to use quantum simulations for material discovery and battery optimization. VW is also exploring quantum algorithms for simulating better materials to make batteries safer, lighter and more cost effective.
• Optimization Problems: Volkswagen and D-wave are experimenting with quantum computing to optimize and predict traffic flow in cities like Lisbon.
• Drug Discovery: Quantum computing holds immense promise in simulating molecular interactions, which could revolutionize the pharmaceutical industry. Companies like IonQ are already partnering with biotech firms to explore how quantum algorithms can accelerate the discovery of new drugs.
• Climate modeling : Several big players are exploring the use of quantum algorithms to create accurate climate models that can help us understand and mitigate climate change.

THE EXPONENTIAL FUTURE

Quantum computing is no longer a futuristic dream—it’s here, and we are making steady progress toward practical use. Google’s quantum supremacy experiment in 2019 showed what’s possible, but real-world applications remain on the horizon. Major players and startups are investing heavily in scaling qubits, improving stability, and developing quantum algorithms that solve meaningful problems.

At The Rift, we will be following every step of this journey. Quantum computing is poised to redefine technology, science, and society, and we are closer than ever to unlocking its full potential. The quantum revolution has begun and its impact will be felt for generations to come.